by datta Nighut 
1. Introduction
The literature surrounding Mumbai temperature variations in urban environments, particularly in the context of Mumbai, reveals significant insights into the trends and implications of climate change. The foundational work by (Kothawale et al., 2010) establishes a critical understanding of temperature extremes across India, highlighting a marked increase in the frequency of hot days and nights while cold days and nights have diminished.
This study, which spans the years from 1970 to 2005, emphasizes that the southern regions of India, including areas like Mumbai, are experiencing a pronounced rise in temperature extremes, particularly during the pre-monsoon season. The authors note that this trend is not merely a fluctuation but a consistent pattern indicating a shift towards less variability in daily maximum and minimum temperatures.
Building on this understanding, (Rathi et al., 2017) focus specifically on the implications of extreme heat in Surat, a city in close proximity to Mumbai. Their research underscores the correlation between summer temperatures and all-cause mortality, suggesting that the health impacts of rising temperatures are becoming increasingly critical in urban settings.
The findings indicate that as temperatures rise, the associated health risks, particularly during the hot months, are becoming more pronounced, a trend that is likely applicable to Mumbai given its similar climatic conditions.
Further expanding the discourse, (Ropo Orimoloye, 2018) examines the broader implications of climate variability on human health, particularly in East London, South Africa. Although geographically distinct, the study’s findings on temperature and humidity fluctuations offer valuable insights applicable to Mumbai’s context.
The research indicates that autumn and summer months have seen the most significant temperature increases, with a notable emphasis on the interplay between temperature and relative humidity. This understanding of seasonal variability is crucial for analyzing temperature trends in Mumbai, as it suggests that the city’s climate may be experiencing similar patterns, particularly with respect to the health implications of rising temperatures during peak seasons.
Together, these studies present a comprehensive overview of the evolving temperature dynamics in urban environments, shedding light on the increasing frequency of extreme heat events and their potential health impacts. The critical evaluation of these articles underscores the need for further research into Mumbai’s specific temperature variations throughout the year, as well as the associated health risks that may arise from such climatic changes.
2. Literature review
The article titled “Recent trends in pre-monsoon daily temperature extremes over India” by (Kothawale et al., 2010) provides a comprehensive analysis of temperature variations in India, particularly focusing on the pre-monsoon season. The authors present significant findings regarding the increasing frequency of hot days and nights, alongside a notable decrease in cold days and nights from 1970 to 2005.
This trend is particularly relevant for understanding temperature variations in urban areas like Mumbai, where such climatic shifts can have profound implications for public health, infrastructure, and urban planning.
The authors highlight that the overall increase in the frequency of hot days is particularly pronounced in southern India, while hot nights have shown significant increases across various regions, including northwest, east-central, and western India.
This regional focus is crucial as it underscores the variability of temperature trends across different parts of the country, suggesting that urban centers like Mumbai may experience unique challenges due to their geographic and climatic contexts.
Furthermore, the article discusses the implications of these trends on extreme weather events, noting an increase in the frequency of hot weather occurrences during the pre-monsoon season.
This observation is critical as it aligns with the broader narrative of climate change and its effects on urban environments. The authors provide a statistical analysis of the 90th and 10th percentiles of daily maximum and minimum temperatures, indicating a significant shift towards higher temperature extremes. Such data-driven insights are essential for policymakers and urban planners in Mumbai, as they must prepare for the potential consequences of these climatic changes.
However, while the article effectively outlines trends and regional differences, it could benefit from a more in-depth exploration of the underlying causes of these temperature variations. Factors such as urban heat island effects, land-use changes, and socio-economic impacts on temperature resilience are crucial for a holistic understanding of the situation in Mumbai. Additionally, the article could enhance its discussion by incorporating projections for future temperature trends and their potential impacts on urban living conditions.
The article “Summer Temperature and Spatial Variability of all-Cause Mortality in Surat City, India” by (Rathi et al., 2017) provides a comprehensive examination of the relationship between summer temperature variations and mortality rates in Surat City, which can lend insights into similar patterns in Mumbai.
The authors employ a robust methodological framework to analyze temperature data alongside mortality statistics, highlighting significant spatial variability in health outcomes that correlate with temperature fluctuations.
One of the key insights from the article is the identification of critical temperature thresholds that exacerbate health risks. The authors note that extreme heat events are not uniformly distributed across the city, suggesting that socio-economic factors and urban infrastructure play a role in how different populations are affected by temperature changes.
This finding is particularly relevant when considering Mumbai’s diverse socio-economic landscape, where vulnerable populations may experience heightened health risks during extreme temperature periods.
The article also discusses the implications of climate change on future temperature patterns and public health. (Rathi et al., 2017) argue that as global temperatures rise, cities like Surat—and by extension, Mumbai—may face increased mortality rates due to heat-related illnesses.
This projection underscores the need for targeted public health interventions and urban planning strategies to mitigate the impact of rising temperatures on vulnerable communities.
Furthermore, the authors emphasize the importance of spatial analysis in understanding how temperature variations affect health outcomes. Their use of geographical information systems (GIS) to map mortality rates against temperature data provides a valuable framework that could be applied to Mumbai’s context. Such an approach would enable policymakers to identify high-risk areas and develop localized responses to heat stress.
The article “Assessment of the human health implications of climate variability in East London, Eastern Cape, South Africa” by (Ropo Orimoloye, 2018) provides a detailed examination of temperature changes and relative humidity variations across different seasons, which can be insightful when analyzing temperature variations in Mumbai throughout the year.
Orimoloye’s study reveals a clear pattern of temperature increases concentrated primarily in the autumn and summer months, indicating that these seasons are critical for understanding temperature dynamics.
The findings show that the highest relative humidity levels occur in spring, while winter experiences the lowest humidity. This seasonal fluctuation in humidity, ranging from 65 to 90 percent in autumn and summer, and from 60 to 85 percent in winter, suggests a complex interaction between temperature and humidity that can significantly impact human health.
The article emphasizes that increased temperatures, particularly in summer and autumn, can exacerbate the effects of extreme heat, especially when coupled with high humidity.
This is a vital consideration for any analysis of temperature variations in Mumbai, where similar climatic conditions may prevail. The implications for human health are particularly pertinent, as the study indicates that changes in climate can lead to increased health risks during periods of extreme heat.
Has the temperature of Mumbai remained constant over the years?
Climate change is a serious threat to life on Earth. The Earth’s temperature has increased considerably over the past century. But has Mumbai’s temperature, for example, shown a similar trend?
The aim of this project is to answer this question by analyzing the temperature of Mumbai during consecutive Februarys and Decembers over the course of 55 years. This data is scarce and an attempt is made to analyze the question with the existing data. It is also noted that this approach can be used and extended for the analysis of many other geographical areas.
From the fit with the February temperatures, it is also noticed that there could be indications of temperature dispersion becoming the greatest near the equator. The time variation is found to be too complicated and seems to incorporate unpredictable factors. Regardless, the observed trend would suggest a possible future boost into global warming.
Today, climate change has grown into an immense topic and is dominated worldwide mostly by media and a number of projected possibilities. Global warming is the term that represents the most widely recognized meaning within climate change with the gradual increasing temperature. The cause behind global warming is the heat emitted back to the Earth’s surface by greenhouse gases. From 1910 to 1945, the Earth’s surface temperature increased by 0.47°C.
The temperature increased. As the Earth’s temperature rose from 1910 to 1945, radiative forcing of the land was expected to reflect a similar trend, as this trapped heat in Earth’s atmosphere. From 1945 to 1975, however, radiative forcing decreased, and temperatures decreased and this inherent connection ended. The Earth’s temperature therefore decreased after 1945 and from 1945 to 1975 as indicated in the theory.
However, from 1975 to 2000, the temperature has increased sharply and greenhouse gas emissions were increased. The theory therefore indicates a period of time in which temperatures have been increased.
2. Conclusion
The literature on temperature variations in urban environments, particularly in Mumbai, emphasizes the increasing frequency of temperature extremes and their implications for public health and urban planning.
The foundational study by (Kothawale et al., 2010) illustrates a significant rise in hot days and nights in India from 1970 to 2005, particularly during the pre-monsoon season. This trend is critical for urban centers like Mumbai, which are experiencing similar climatic changes, suggesting a need for adaptive strategies in response to these rising temperatures.
In a related study, (Rathi et al., 2017) investigated the correlation between summer temperatures and mortality rates in Surat, revealing that health risks associated with rising temperatures are becoming increasingly pronounced.
The research highlights that extreme heat events are not uniformly distributed, indicating that socio-economic factors and urban infrastructure significantly affect health outcomes. This aspect is particularly relevant for Mumbai, where diverse socio-economic conditions may exacerbate vulnerability to heat-related illnesses.
Moreover, the study by (Ropo Orimoloye, 2018) provides insights into the interplay between temperature and humidity, noting that autumn and summer months witness the most significant temperature increases.
The findings suggest that high humidity levels during these seasons can intensify the effects of extreme heat, posing additional health risks. Such seasonal dynamics are crucial for understanding temperature variations in Mumbai and highlight the importance of considering relative humidity in climate assessments.
In conclusion, the reviewed literature underscores the necessity for further research focused on Mumbai’s specific temperature variations and their health implications. The increasing frequency of extreme heat events, coupled with socio-economic disparities and humidity fluctuations, necessitates targeted public health interventions and urban planning strategies to mitigate the adverse effects of climate change on vulnerable populations in the city.
References:
Kothawale, D. R., Revadekar, J. V., and Kumar, K. R. “Recent trends in pre-monsoon daily temperature extremes over India.” 2010. [PDF]
Rathi, S. K., Desai, V. K., Jariwala, P., Desai, H., Naik, A., and Joseph, A. “Summer Temperature and Spatial Variability of all-Cause Mortality in Surat City, India.” 2017. ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
Ropo Orimoloye, I. “Assessment of the human health implications of climate variability in East London, Eastern Cape, South Africa.” 2018. [PDF]
